Vince Dhimos answered a question at Quora.
WHAT CAN THE US REPUBLICANS REALLY DO TO STOP CHINA FROM BECOMING THE WORLD’S LARGEST ECONOMY?
Editor-in-Chief at New Silk Strategies (2016–present)
Short of war, the US can’t stop China. A few examples will explain this.
After 2019, the first year of the trade war, the US still showed a very large, though somewhat diminished, trade deficit, but China had a surplus and an increase in trade of $1.34 trillion, thanks in large part to the members of its BRI. The trade war was designed to cripple China’s economy but it failed ignominiously. Almost all economists agree that trade wars are of no benefit and that both sides lose. So Trump was displaying abysmal ignorance of macroeconomics when he launched the war. It’s not that Trump is especially inept. ALL US presidents are ignorant of macroeconomics and their advisers are also focused only on a small area of that field that prevents them from seeing the whole-world picture. In particular, they all believe in quantitative easing (issuance of unbacked trillions) as a remedy to economic ills.
One problem for the US is that although it is China’s biggest trading partner, China has many others and the US’s share is only about 11% at this point. That is not enough to put a dent in China even if it were possible to shut off all bilateral trade.
The biggest problem, though, is the US’s overall strategy. The US economic strategy is zero-sum, while China’s is win-win.
Even in theory, or on their face, we can easily see which strategy is superior and which is designed to fail.
According to US zero-sum theory, if the competitor suffers economic loss, the other side gains. There is, of course, no logic in this. It is pure ideology. After all, it is possible that both sides could suffer loss. It is also possible that the side trying to cripple the other’s economy would fail (and that’s exactly what has happened).
In the Chinese win-win game, if China makes a poor African partner richer, for example, through judicious investments, then both partners gain because dealing with a rich partner is a bigger advantage than dealing with a poor partner since the rich partner can afford to import more of your goods. So Xi Jinping’s long-term goal of lifting Africa out of poverty is not just pure altruism, it is partly selfish, ie, win-win, as the Chinese leadership itself proudly admits.
Further, the US has, since the 2008–9 at Recession, been forced to turn to the Fed’s “printing press,” ie, the issuance of unbacked currency, to remedy crises, but this can only be a temporary remedy, as the Fed itself admits. In the long run, it creates a real risk of making the world lose confidence in the US dollar. Already, Morgan Stanly’s ex chief economist Stephen Roach has predicted a crash in the dollar in 2021 (A Crash in the Dollar Is Coming).
China, of course, does not have this problem. In contrast to the US, it has over a trillion dollars in US Treasuries saved up for such a crisis as the COVID pandemic. Of course, Western critics like to jeer that China’s companies often file for bankruptcy. But look, that is not a sign of a badly run economy, to the contrary, it shows that badly run companies are flushed from the system as they well should be. Contrast this with the US non-solution: after the Great Recession, and now again following the onset of the COVID crisis, the Fed printed up trillions of unbacked dollars and spread them all over the map, helping bail out companies with abominable management that should have been allowed to fail — and would have in the good old days of fair competition. But for the Fed, their billionaire cronies in Big Business are royalty and cannot be allowed to fail. Thus, these badly managed companies become a permanent drag on the overall economy and their owners are rewarded for their incompetence. Now ask yourself: is a country that consistently rewards incompetence destined to win or doomed to fail? This horribly flawed system, BTW, is why the income gap between rich and poor is growing to such staggeringly heights. And there is no cure for it because nothing can stop the Fed from continuing to reward its filthy rich pals (this is one reason why we can’t talk about American “democracy,” which is a chimera. It’s all explained here). This is what we call corruption, and the favouring of the rich goes hand in hand with the favouring of whites by police (though few have noticed it). It’s part of the same social and spiritual cesspool that drags down America and festers until it erupts in a coast-to-coast conflagration that the Federal government is powerless to contain.
But getting back to China, the US had slandered Huawei in hopes of ruining that company, but that was very foolish because Silicon Valley tech workers have known for some time that there are delicate ties between US tech and Chinese tech that make it impossible to decouple the two sides. And just to show how this attempted sabotage worked out, the US was recently forced to back down and allow Huawei to cooperate in the US 5G rollout.
Nothing, absolutely nothing, is going America’s way in this foolish zero-sum game, and unless the US wakes up and sees the whole picture of US-China ties and their indispensability for the US economy, the zero-sum nonsense will continue to blow up in the US’s face.
I have posted answers to various questions at Quora that provide further details:
WAR AND CRISIS NEWS
In the following you will find our translation of an article in nation-news.ru with commentary and notes [in brackets] by Vince Dhimos.
Democrat-backed Libyan Government of National Accord shows its true colours again. This time, its psychopathic militias harass and rape civilians.
17 June 2020
Various news reports from the US and elsewhere show that the Libyan GNA is not the kind of “government” the US should be supporting. A GNA official admitted to the WaPo that it is supported militarily by ISIS and Al-Qaeda militants imported to Libya by Turkey. So far, the Trump administration has shown restraint, not supporting either side in the war, but the Democrats are intent on making political hay out of the fact that the Russians are fighting on the anti-terrorist side, claiming that both Russia and the Haftar troops it supports should be sanctioned under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) simply because Russia is involved. So when Russia opposes terror that is bad just because Russia is, by the perverted definition of US lawmakers, an “adversary” of the US, based on the lie that Russia is an “aggressor” (I debunked this notion here). It is becoming increasingly clear that the US
Russian diplomat attributes the atrocities of the Libyan Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tarhun to mental problems
June 17, 2020
The militants of the so-called Government of National Accord (GNA) of Libya suffer from mental illness and have derangement, said Stanislav Kudryashov, spokesman for the Eastern Libyan Government in the Russian Federation.
According to Kudryashov, it is precisely the problems with the psyche that are indicated by the video recordings on which the Misurat group raped a person who looked like one of the Egyptian workers. After this incident, videos appeared with the torture of other abductees in Tarhun. According to the expert, in reality, the GNA is fighting not for the Libyan people, but for atrocities and violence.
"They have already formed serious mental derangement, which the militants of Sarraj and Bashagi themselves most certainly possess. All this is sad and abnormal," the Federal News Agency (FAN) quotes Kudryashov as saying.
According to the expert, children are growing up in this kind of environment, and several million people are forced to live under the control of mentally ill representatives of the GNA. Kudryashov believes that the actions of jihadists are not compatible with the logic of a healthy person, and that militants can only be stopped by implementing common efforts [unfortunately, such efforts are opposed by the Turks and US Democrats]. The expert believes the world community can stop the chaos created by the GNA in Libya. Kudryashov called the actions of the militants inexplicable, since this is a surge of aggression against defenceless people who are not waging war with them.
Earlier, the Libyan GNA released false news about the presence of PMC "Wagner" [Russian mercenaries] in the country. No one could confirm this information. [The GNA knew that sleazy American lawmakers would use this unconfirmed report to garner support for their side, but when all they have in their “favour” is the fact that the Russians oppose them, that shows that they have no logical arguments to support them. After all, the Russians sent medical aid to the US. Does that mean this medical aid was bad or unhealthy. It is sad that so many Americans fall for such flimsy propaganda]
Author: Oleg Nikitin