Foreign Power Behind Events in Kyrgyzstan

Below is our translation of an article from news.rambler.ru with commentary by Vince Dhimos.
 
Whenever there is violent political unrest in a country that is not aligned with the US, it is naive to think that the unrest is home grown or spontaneous.
 
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Foreign Power Behind Events in Kyrgyzstan
 
August 10, 2019
 
A new revolution is underway in Kyrgyzstan. The reason for this was the stupidity, greed and immaturity of the Kyrgyz elites, as well as great desire for financial investments from the United States.
 
Unaware leaders
 
The conflict itself flared up because two presidents quarreled - the former head of state Almazbek Atambayev and his successor, the current head of the country Sooronbai Jeenbekov, who was appointed by him.
 
A wise person once said that the stability and democracy of a state system is determined not because people come to power, but because they leave. And it seemed that this transit was successful in Kyrgyzstan - in 2017, Atambayev, after the only presidential term allowed him by the constitution, gave power to a leader of the same party Sooronbai Jeenbekov, who was elected by the people of the country.
Не первый раз в истории преемник после «оперения» выходит из-под тени предшественника и/или выдвинувшей его «семибоярщины», после чего начинает проводить самостоятельную политику. Однако в этом конкретном случае преемник нарушил возможно имевшие место гарантии безопасности Атамбаеву и его окружению.
Yes, Atambayev transferred power to “his man” in the expectation that he would thus retain political influence in the country. Yes, political scientists predicted that the president’s hopes would not come true. This is not the first time in history that a successor after being groomed, comes out from under the shadow of his predecessor and / or the guarantors who siupported him, and then begins to pursue an independent policy. However, in this particular case, the successor violated the possible security guarantees of Atambayev and his entourage.
 
In 2018 - early 2019, he launched a real campaign against his predecessor in an attempt to deprive him of all opportunities to influence the work of the Kyrgyz authorities. The country's leadership began an investigation of a number of aspects of the previous administration, and has already accused Atambayev of corruption, as well as of helping criminal agents.
 
According to the head of the Eurasian Nalitic Club, Nikita Mendkovich, the arrests of a number of Atambaev-era officials, including former Prime Minister Isakov and a number of non-public conflicts, finally turned the relations between the two presidents from friendship into confrontation. It was this enmity, coupled with the desire to "protect" people from their "teams" that brought the conflict to its present state - without all this, it would hardly have taken such dangerous violent forms.
 
Dangerous - and, unfortunately, meaningless and unprofessional. After Atambayev refused to come to interrogations in a number of criminal cases opened against him, and also after hasty removal of legal immunity from the former president by the parliament, the authorities decided to detain him. They attempted to take Atambaev into custody in his own home, located in the village of Koy-Tash. However, the capture operation itself, which took place on August 7, was organized very badly. The targeted operation with the instructions to “unexpectedly enter - put everyone on the floor - quickly leave with the subject,” turned into a protracted assault and massacre and ended in a shameful defeat for the authorities. The special forces were captured by the emergency arrival of "supporters of the president" and many of the soldiers were injured. They were sent to a hospital (where one died), and six were left in the house as hostages.
 
Yes, it didn’t save Atambaev in the end – the preponderance of force was on the side of the state (which pulled significant resources to the village), and the ex-president gave up after long negotiations and allowed himself to be detained. Yes, now he has already received the status of the accused, and President Jeenbekov accused him of "gross violation of the Constitution." However, this victory looks like a pyrrhic one to the authorities – mass protests are already unfolding in the country, which are superimposed on the traditional split between the clans of the north (to which Atambayev belongs) and south (to which Jeenbekov belongs) of the country. As a result, another Kyrgyz riot is brewing in Bishkek – meaningless, merciless, but required by some foreign powers.
 
American gasoline
 
For all the indisputably internal causes of the crisis, one cannot ignore the fact that it was instigated from abroad, primarily by the United States. Washington’s interest in Kyrgyzstan is understandable – the country is a weak link in two chains that are very interesting for US interests. Which can be weakened, and even (with great luck) and broken up through Kyrgyzstan.
 
The first is Eurasian integration, which strengthens Russian influence in the post-Soviet space and ties local economies to the Russian one. The second, and much more dangerous for the United States, is the Chinese project "One Belt, One Road" (OBOR), which is designed to reorient Sino-European trade from the sea (controlled by the US Navy) to land routes. In addition, OBOR cements Chinese influence in these countries, and turns the regions west of the PRC border into a “safe backyard.” It guarantees China the absence of a "second front" during the geopolitical expansion of Beijing to the southeast and the related deepening of US-Chinese contradictions.
 
In Kyrgyzstan, destabilizing these projects is easiest. The country is known for the internal instability associated with the deeply clannish structure of society, the lack of an authoritarian tradition (which is needed in such societies to consolidate and build state institutions), as well as the highly anarchist structure of proto-civil society. It is not surprising that Kyrgyzstan has become extremely attractive for various American non-profit organizations that are actively working in the country and are in close contact with the local opposition.
 
So, according to Nikita Mendkovich, in May Bishkek [the capital of Kyrgyzstan] was visited by two emissaries from NED (a well-known American scientific centre dealing with issues of regime change), including the director of the Eurasian direction Spaska Gatzinsk. They met with opposition activists (who have now joined Atambayev’s supporters), discussed the consolidation of the opposition, the instigation of the northern regions against the president, and the financing of this activity.
 
Moscow and Beijing are well aware of all the whole weaknesses of the Kyrgyz link in their projects – and have done everything possible to strengthen it. Thus, the Russian and Chinese authorities strongly supported the peaceful transition of power from Atambaev to a successor (the first legal transfer of power from one head of state to another in the history of independent Kyrgyzstan – apart from the departure of the “interim president” Roza Otumbaeva) in the hope that he would put a bold stopping point in the history of the Kyrgyz coups. However, they underestimated the political immaturity of local bureaucracy, which does not understand how important it was to wean the Kyrgyz people from the traditions of "street democracy," to inspire people with the idea that the head of state can be set and removed only at the ballot boxes.
 
It was precisely this political immaturity that apparently also became the reason why the Russian authorities failed to convince Atambayev and Jeenbekov to resolve their contradictions without exposing their dirty laundry. Of course, Moscow will continue its attempt to enlighten the local elites - on August 8, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev arrived in Kyrgyzstan. He will not only participate in the meeting of the Eurasian Intergovernmental Council (the official purpose of the visit), but will also hold talks with all the rebels. But he will not put the genie back in the bottle.
 
To paraphrase Sharapov from “The meeting place cannot be changed,” the most expensive thing on earth is stupidity, because you will have to pay most for it. And the stupidity of the Kyrgyz authorities comes at the highest price. Stupidity and greed.
 
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