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Vince Dhimos answered a question at Quora. https://www.quora.com/What-do-you-think-will-be-the-downfall-of-USA/answer/Vince-Dhimos What do you think will be the downfall of USA? Vince Dhimos, Editor-in-Chief at New Silk Strategies (2016-present) War is the key to the collapse but further down the cause-effect chain, a key item is the war financing from endless debt. Equally important is the disastrous decisions made to sustain the real economy, particuarly the focus on shale oil. The Fed has been fighting a losing battle in its attempt to finance its profligate spending to buy back US Treasuries. First, through its easy mortgage policy, it started a real estate bubble that led to a worldwide crisis in 2008–9. This mirrored its policy of easy credit for stock market trading that started the Great Depression in the 20s. Then to deal with this recession, it issued trillions in new money under the euphemism “quantitative easing,” which contributed to a further weakening of Treasuries by making interest rates too low to attract investors in US debt, compounding the problem. It was forced to do this several times but without ever solving the debt crisis because money “printing” can only ever be a stopgap measure, not a permanent solution. Now, out of options, the Fed finds itself in a repo market crisis, and is left with only the same old option of issuing new unbacked money. The stopgap is now a permanent fixture. Add to this the $2 trillion Trump "coronavirus" bailout, which led to another round of money issuance (“printing”). However, issuing new money always carries the risk of devaluing the currency, and, as mentioned above, can only be used as a stopgap measure. In the case of the dollar, this constant issuance of new currency was not as critical is it would be for another country because the dollar is still the world reserve currency. But there are threats to the dollar’s reserve status: 1—The states of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and BRICS are increasingly using local currencies in their mutual trade, thereby undermining the dollar’s dominance. The value of a currency depends in large part on the volume of its use in world trade. This trend to use the dollar less will only escalate. 2—Europe is almost unanimous in its resistance to US bullying, and as a result, European states and the EU itself are refusing to bow to pressure from Washington. Examples: The UK resisted US pressure to not allow Huawei to participate in its 5G roll-out. Germany and EU leadership refused to back down from the Nord Stream 2 pipeline project to deliver Russian gas to Germany. When they stood up to the bully, Washington imposed third-party (extraterritorial) sanctions on Russia preventing companies, notably Swiss-Dutch Allseas, from continuing to lay the pipeline, which was almost completed by that time. This led to resentment and then retaliation on Russia's part, as we shall see below. This bullying and the push-back it created led to the first use of Europe’s new INSTEX mechanism, a work-around to SWIFT that enables European countries to by-pass the US-controlled Belgian SWIFT messaging agency that facilitates international cash transfers but enables the US to monitor for “violations” of its sanctions. INSTEX was originally designed to circumvent third-party sanctions on Iran. A few days ago, the UK, Germany and France used this system for the first time to make a cash transfer between them and Iran. This was a milestone in the international rejection of the US dollar. Slowly but surely the US is losing its sanctions bludgeon and its dollar hegemony. Once the dollar becomes just another currency, the US will lose most of its hegemony (dominance) and hence its ability to bully the rest of the world. At the same time, Russia, seeing its chance to retaliate against the Nord Stream sanctions in the midst of the COVID19 pandemic, unexpectedly refused to continue the OPEC+ policy of cutting oil production, thereby triggering a reaction by Saudi Arabia to undertake unbridled oil production. The combined impact of these actions led to an immediate crisis in US shale oil, which is already high-priced because of fracking and frequent re-drilling, leaving US oil drillers dangling in a crisis with no possible remedies. Unless the US can somehow persuade Saudi and Russia to resume the production cuts, the US will lose the key component of its real economy. In a desperate attempt to revive its oil economy, the US is now focused on Venezuela. It has manufactured the novel narrative of President Maduro as an international “drug dealer” and is sending warships to the shores of his oil-rich country. But Russia is there with its war planes. So far the US has restrained itself in provoking Russia militarily for fear of nuclear war. Will he do the unthinkable? Vince Dhimos answered a question at Quora: https://www.quora.com/What-should-be-the-ideal-step-to-keep-the-economy-stable-during-the-COVID-19-crisis/answer/Vince-Dhimos What should be the ideal step to keep the economy stable during the COVID-19 crisis? Vince Dhimos, Editor-in-Chief at New Silk Strategies (2016-present) Stop playing cock-of-the-rock and hold meetings with China, Russia, Iran, Venezuela, the European Union and others who want to help. If the US made conciliatory moves to Iran and Venezuela, dropping the sanctions and useless regime-change polices, the US could again cooperate with these countries in oil development, and the world could prevail on Saudi Arabia to undertake a rapprochement with Saudi that would ease the tension in that region. With all of these headwinds, Saudi would be forced to give up its oil war. If the US withdrew its sanctions on Allseas and allowed the Nord Stream pipeline to be completed, Russia would also give up its part of the oil price war. NATO would be shut down permanently, and the US would shut down its foreign bases and bring home the troops, saving trillions every year for both Europe and the US. This would bring the arms race to a screeching halt, saving trillions for Russia and China as well. At the same time, pressure could be applied to Israel to bring it into the global community and wean it of its old hard-line policies that hurt Palestine. It would save money by turning its swords into ploughshares so to speak. Washington should then offer concessions to keep the economies going. For example, stop trying to block the progress of Huawei because this company is key to the success of US tech companies. Of course, this is impossible so far because the US is too arrogant to make such concessions even at the expense of its own survival. Somehow, however, it simply needs to turn itself around and start over. And the only thing that could possible turn it around is a complete economic collapse, which will eventually happen as a result of Washington’s reckless economic and financial policies, as I explained in the previous answer (above). WHAT TO EXPECT FROM THE OIL PRICE WAR Vince on Quora. 4-2, 2020 Vince Dhimos answered a question at Quora. https://www.quora.com/Which-oil-company-will-have-the-most-benefit-in-the-oil-price-war-of-Russia-and-Saudi-Arabia/answer/Vince-Dhimos Which oil company will have the most benefit in the oil price war of Russia and Saudi Arabia? Vince Dhimos, Editor-in-Chief at New Silk Strategies (2016-present) No Western company dedicated solely to extracting shale oil will benefit but it is predicted that a few companies with other forms of business could survive. Here is an excerpt from Barrons: 7 Stocks That Could Ride Out the Turmoil in Energy Markets “Cowen analyst Jason Gabelman likes Phillips 66 (PSX), which has a strong balance sheet and can profit by refining crude produced overseas, even if U.S. production slumps.” In other words, the experts are saying that there is really no future in shale oil alone but there could be profit in refining crude produced overseas that is NOT from shale. Shale was a bad bet from the get-go for two fatal reasons: 1—Extraction requires fracking, a very expensive process, and 2—The wells have very short useful lives and once they are depleted, the producer must re-drill, which is also an expensive process. Due to these insurmountable drawbacks inherent in shale oil, experts, for example, at Crude Oil Prices Today | OilPrice.com had been setting the break-even price per barrel at about $50, though lately, due to efficiency boosts, that has gone down to about $46/barrel. But even that lower price is way high for today’s market where prices are as low as $20. Even a price of $10 has been quoted! You don’t have to be a math whiz to know this shale business is not going anywhere soon. Russia claims it can make money even at the bargain basement prices of today. Saudi also makes the same boast. We don’t know how much of this is pure bravura. but if Putin is taking this risk, then he knows Russia can bear the consequences. WAR NEWS It is hard to believe that even ONE Westerner would continue to read US-controlled Western news. I just now did a Google search and could not find a single mention of this US pullout described in the article just below. In fact, it was first reported not in English but in Arabic at the Russian Sputnik site. I urge all readers who really want to know the truth and not the sanitized feel-good reports from Western sources, to go to Al Masdar and Southfront for this war and crisis news. https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/us-military-preparing-to-withdraw-from-oldest-base-in-iraq/ US military preparing to withdraw from oldest base in Iraq By News Desk 2020-04-01 BEIRUT, LEBANON (6:00 P.M.) – The spokesman for the Iraqi Joint Operations Command, Major General Tahsin al-Khafaj, revealed in an interview on Wednesday that the U.S. military is preparing to withdraw from one of the oldest bases inside the country. In an interview with Sputnik Arabic, Al-Khafaji said that the Iraqi forces will receive the Habbaniyah Airbase, located between the cities of Fallujah and Al-Ramadi in western Iraq, from the American forces and the International Coalition next week, according to an organized schedule. A source told Lebanon’s Al-Mayadeen TV the same thing on Wednesday, leading many to believe that this airbase will be fully under the Iraqi military’s control by the end of next week. It is worth noting that the Habbaniyah Air Force Base is considered one of the oldest installations in Iraq; it was established by the British Royal Air Force back to 1936, and after the departure of the British, it was transferred to the Iraqi Air Force. The Habbaniyah Airbase is located in a city with the same name, between the cities of Fallujah and Al-Ramadi. Idlib ceasefire to end in 24 hours as militants refuse to leave M-4 Highway By News Desk - 2020-03-31 BEIRUT, LEBANON (9:20 A.M.) – The ceasefire that was established during the March 5th Moscow Agreement is nearing its end, as the militants refuse to leave the M-4 Highway (Aleppo-Latakia Highway). According to a report from the Idlib front, the ceasefire that was established on March 5th will expire in the next 24 hours. The Russian military had previously given their Turkish partners until March 12th to clear the militant-held areas along the M-4 Highway; however, this deadline was later extended to the end of March. The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) has already been building up their forces along the Jabal Al-Zawiya front, but they have refrained from attempting to advance their positions. It is not clear if the deadline for the ceasefire will be extended further, but, as of now, the agreement has yet to be fulfilled. US hypocrisy on display as Pentagon orders US bases to stop divulging number of COVID19 cases in the military after 1,000 cases reported. Just think, China was condemned in the US for failing to report the epidemic in timely fashion, but then President Trump declared the epidemic story a hoax. So now what is the Pentagon doing? Hushing up its own cases so the families back home can’t know how their boys and girls are doing in a world threatened with a pandemic. Vince Dhimos https://southfront.org/pentagon-confirms-over-1000-covid-19-cases-among-military-orders-bases-to-stop-public-reporting/ PENTAGON CONFIRMS OVER 1,000 COVID-19 CASES AMONG MILITARY, ORDERS BASES TO STOP PUBLIC REPORTING Originally appeared at ZeroHedge The Department of Defense (DoD) announced a grim milestone Monday — it’s total number of COVID-19 cases among US service members, civilian contractors, on-base civilian staff, and family dependents of troops has surpassed 1,000. “Total DoD Cases (current, recovered and deaths) is 1,087,” according to DoD fact sheet released on Monday. The numbers are as follow: Pentagon Confirms Over 1,000 COVID-19 Cases Among Military, Orders Bases To Stop Public Reporting. The Pentagon said 569 service members have been infected, among these 26 hospitalizations, and 34 have recovered. The remainder of total cases involve civilian contractors working on military bases and/or at the Pentagon, as well as dependents. This number is up significantly from Friday’s total DoD number of 600. But it appears we are fast heading toward a near total reporting blockage in terms of DoD-wide cases, and specifically where they originate, and in what branches of the US armed services. As Stars & Stripes reports: The Defense Department has ordered commanders at all of its installations worldwide to stop announcing publicly new coronavirus cases among their personnel, as the Pentagon said Monday that more than 1,000 U.S. military-linked people had been sickened by the virus. The order issued by Defense Secretary Mark Esper on Friday is meant to protect operational security at the Defense Department’s global installations, Jonathan Hoffman, the Pentagon’s chief spokesman, said in a statement Monday. He said Defense Department leaders worried adversaries could exploit such information, especially if the data showed the outbreak impacted U.S. nuclear forces or other critical units. This constitutes perhaps the clearest admission thus far throughout the crisis that the coronavirus pandemic is a serious threat to US defense readiness and national security. Pentagon Confirms Over 1,000 COVID-19 Cases Among Military, Orders Bases To Stop Public Reporting Currently at least two aircraft carriers are battling outbreaks in their midst – both are in the Pacific Ocean and likely have seen their operational readiness deeply compromised as commanders try to contain the spread, with the USS Theodore Roosevelt already being diverted to Guam days ago. https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/nearly-500-syrian-mercenaries-killed-in-libya-lna/?utm_medium=ppc&utm_source=push&utm_campaign=push%notificationss&utm_content=varies Nearly 500 Syrian mercenaries killed in Libya: LNA By News Desk - 2020-04-02 BEIRUT, LEBANON (2:20 P.M.) – The spokesperson for the Libyan National Army (LNA), Major-General Ahmad Al-Mismari, announced on Thursday that the death toll for the Turkish-backed Syrian mercenaries had reached 500 after more than four months of fighting. Over the past week alone, the Syrian mercenaries have suffered dozens of casualties at the hands of the Libyan National Army. Many of these casualties in the ranks of the Syrian mercenaries came as a result of the Libyan National Army’s rapid advance through the southern outskirts of Tripoli, which has since come under the control of LNA. While the LNA reports 500 Syrian mercenaries killed, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) contrasts these figures; instead, they claim approximately 150 of these militants have died in the past four months. Despite the large deviation in numbers, it still remains that the deployment of Syrian mercenaries to Libya has been a major failure, as they have been unable to slow down the LNA’s large-scale advance across the northwestern region of the country. The first Syrian mercenaries arrived in Libya at the end of December. Since then, Turkey has transported a large number of them to the North African country, despite territorial losses in Syria’s northwestern region. https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/libyan-army-shoots-down-enemy-fighter-jet-near-coastal-city/?utm_medium=ppc&utm_source=push&utm_campaign=push%notificationss&utm_content=varies Libyan Army shoots down enemy fighter jet near coastal city By News Desk 2020-04-02 BEIRUT, LEBANON (5:00 P.M.) – The Libyan National Army (LNA) announced on Thursday that their air defense forces shot down an enemy aircraft belonging to the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA). According to the statement, the Libyan National Army air defenses shot down a fighter plane belonging to the forces of the GNA, resulting in the death of the air crew. The spokesman for the Libyan Army Commander-in-Chief, Ahmed Al-Mismari, said in a statement:”The air defense forces shot down an L-39 fighter jet belonging to the Turkish-backed Misrata militia (Al-Wefaq government forces) at noon today, south of Abu Qurayn (var. Gurayn), and the pilot and his co-pilot were killed.”. Ancient Nay and Ibrahim Faraj. ” On Wednesday, the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs in Libya renewed its call to the parties in the conflict in Libya to stop the fighting immediately and to allow medical services to perform their duties to reduce the spread of the new coronavirus. The office confirmed that after two new confirmed cases were registered in Libya, the total number has now risen to ten. The UN stated that the ongoing fighting must stop immediately to allow health authorities and aid agencies to contain the further spread of the epidemic. https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/us-deploys-warships-off-venezuelan-coast/?utm_medium=ppc&utm_source=push&utm_campaign=push%notificationss&utm_content=varies US deploys warships off Venezuelan coast By News Desk 2020-04-02 BEIRUT, LEBANON (11:00 P.M.) – U.S. President Donald Trump announced that the United States will deploy warships in the Caribbean Sea and the eastern Pacific Ocean as part of efforts to combat drug trafficking. Trump indicated during a press conference with Defense Secretary Mark Esper and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Millie, that this measure is necessary given the “growing danger” posed by drug traffickers. Trump considered that drug cartels might take advantage of the spread of the coronavirus, pointing out that the U.S. will not allow this. Trump added that the U.S. Army’s southern command would intensify reconnaissance missions, and that the United States would double its capabilities in the region. In turn, Mark Esper stressed that more must be done to prevent drugs from reaching the American coast. The Reuters News Agency’s sources said that the aim of this step is to increase pressure on the Venezuelan government and its allies, but that is not in preparation for military action against Venezuela. U.S. officials have indicated that despite President Donald Trump’s statements that all options are on the table regarding Venezuela, the United States does not want to use military force because that could lead to it entering a new conflict abroad. The United States has recently accused Venezuelan President Nicholas Maduro and some senior officials in Venezuela of involvement in the drug trade. Venezuela rejected the accusations, considering them part of the American efforts to topple the regime in the country.
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