Vince Dhimos answered a question at Quora.
With Turkey's foreign policy increasingly aligned against NATO and its member states' interests, should Turkey's NATO membership be revoked?
Vince Dhimos Editor-in-Chief at New Silk Strategies (2016–present)
It’s complicated. The US has two policies: the one it publicly proclaims (eg, “war on terror”), and it’s hidden agenda, which you can easily figure out if you watch its actions in the Middle East closely enough. The public policy and the hidden agenda are opposites. And please note: we are not talking about a so-called "Deep State" policy and a Trump policy here because Trump's policies are in line with the Deep State, though his acolytes haven't all figured that out yet. Yes, it is true that there is a certain anti-Trump segment in the Deep State -- which should just be called the Establishment -- but the elites behind the curtain are not really opposed to or by Trump at the deepest levels. If there was a meaningful difference between Trump and the Establishment elites, the US would no longer be in Syria or Afghanistan, the Fed would not be distributing freshly minted unbacked dollars to its cronies in Big Business, and there would be no sanctions on innocent civilians in Venezuela or Iran. US bullying is the old threadbare policy, nothing new and nothing great again.
Turkey is aligned with the US’s hidden agenda to create chaos in the Middle East (according to the Yinon Plan "Greater Israel": The Zionist Plan for the Middle East - Global Research) and to oppose Russia (because Russia consistently seeks stability, not chaos).
But it is further complicated by the fact that the US supports the Kurds while Turkey fights them and by the fact that Turkey is vehemently anti-Israel. Interestingly, both Turkey and Israel serve as vital US proxies, doing its dirty work. (US-Kurd relations explained here).
Turkey also supports the Serraj government (GNA) in Libya, which pretends to be secular but turns a blind eye to black slavery and allows Turkey to import ISIS militants to Libya. The US Establishment cabal has nothing against these evils but must placate the public by pretending to oppose them. (US Democrats support Turkey and terrorists by demanding Russia stop fighting the terrorist-backed GNA. Details here).
Serraj is opposed by France, UAE, Sudan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Russia. France has refused to participate in the latest NATO naval exercise because of an alleged attack on a French ship by Turkey.
If you are concerned about what mischief Erdoğan may perpetrate next, you may be encouraged to note that Turkey’s ex PM expects Erdoğan’s party to collapse as it is losing power among the Turkish elites, as reported here, and also among the Turkish grassroots.
Our translation from Russian of an article from avia.pro with a foreword and notes [in brackets] by Vince Dhimos.
Israel considers launching missiles at Khmeimim airbase
Israel intends to attack the vicinity of the Khmeimim air base using drones.
Aware of their impunity and inaction of the S-400 Triumph systems, Israel may again try to strike at the outskirts of the Russian military base Khmeimim, using its unmanned aerial vehicles for this. The goal of the Israeli military will not be the Russian military, but the pro-Iranian forces, however, one of the key points could be a test of the Russian S-400 Triumph air defence systems, since a missile launched towards the air base will become a threat to which Russian air defence will have to respond 100%.
According to experts, so far the Russian air defence systems, to put it mildly, have not been able to establish themselves in Syria, due to the numerous unexpected attacks of the Israeli Air Force and the actual presence of Israeli fighters in Syrian airspace. Nevertheless, it is obvious that Israel wants to act in Syria much more aggressively; however, the declared characteristics of the Russian complexes could become a very serious obstacle, which was the reason for the assumption that Israeli drones could try to strike at Iran’s forces located near the air base "Hmeimim,” but on condition that the missiles launched will have to fly directly over the military airfield to force the Russian military to use the S-400 air defence systems.
However, analysts call this assumption ridiculous.
“The S-400 is not designed to fight drones and small missiles. If Israel really decides to take such a step, then, obviously, we will be using short-range air defence systems, such as a Tor or Buk. It is also important to understand that any threat to the Russian military may be punishable for Israel and therefore Tel Aviv should be very careful,” said an Avia.pro specialist.
Nato nerves on edge as France pulls out of sea operation in major row with Turkey over Libya
By bne IntelIiNews July 2, 2020
France has temporarily pulled out of a Nato security operation amid its major row with Turkey over Ankara’s alleged violation of an arms embargo against Libya.
The French defence ministry on July 2 said France had suspended its participation in Operation Sea Guardian. The move also comes after Turkish ships allegedly targeted a French warship in the Mediterranean. Turkey has strongly refuted the claim and a Nato investigation into it was inconclusive. France, meanwhile, has been calling on EU countries to hold urgent talks on the bloc’s future relations with Turkey.
It is clear that Paris is unhappy at the foothold Turkey has gained in Libya by militarily supporting the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA) against the Libyan National Army (LNA) forces of General Khalifa Haftar in the Libyan Civil War. As bne IntelliNews has reported, there are fears that the outcome of the conflict could leave both Turkish and Russian military bases in Libya staring across the Mediterranean at France, Italy and other European states. Turkey has recruited militia fighters in the Syrian Civil War whom it has transported to Libya to fight on the side of the GNA, causing French President Emmanuel Macron this week to accuse Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan of massively importing jihadists into the country in a “criminal” intervention by “a country that claims to be a Nato member”.
Migrant transit point
Oil-rich nation Libya is a key transit point for migrants heading to Europe from Africa. France and other EU nations are already deeply unhappy at how Turkey has in recent months encouraged Syrian migrants it is hosting to attempt to enter the bloc by crossing its border with Greece.
French relations with Turkey are also strained over Turkey's drilling in the eastern Mediterranean, some of which is said to infringe the exclusive economic zone of Cyprus.
Tensions between Paris and Ankara reared up on June 10 when French frigate Courbet moved to inspect a Tanzanian-flagged cargo ship, the Cirkin, off the coast of Libya, to check if it was smuggling arms in contravention of a UN ban.
The French ship was participating in Nato's Operation Sea Guardian, the objectives of which include maintaining freedom of navigation and conducting a "maritime counter-terrorism" role.
French defence forces claimed that in response Turkish ships escorting the Cirkin, which Turkey said was carrying medical supplies, acted aggressively, even targeted the Courbet with their weapons systems three times. Turkey denies the French allegation, saying the interaction was friendly.
Turkey's foreign minister, Mevlut Cavusoglu, on July 1 asked France to apologise for its allegations about the Courbet. Ankara has accused France of supporting the LNA in the Syria conflict. The LNA is also backed by Russian mercenaries and Russia appears to have flown fighter planes, stripped of their markings, to one of its desert air bases in response to GNA gains assisted by Turkish drones. Cavusoglu said France has been "destructive" in the North African nation. He also accused it of trying "to increase Russia's presence in Libya".
“Doesn’t make sense”
After France suspended its role in Operation Sea Guardian, a French official told Reuters: "It doesn't make sense to keep our assets... with allies who do not respect the embargo."
Turkey has also upset Nato allies with its actions in Syria and purchase of Russian S-400 air defence missile systems viewed as a threat by the US and the military alliance to the performance data of the US F-35 fighter. The US has refused to deliver F-35s to Turkey as a result.
There is also the danger that tensions between Turkey and neighbouring Greece could reach fever pitch over migrants, drilling rights and longstanding issues over territorial claims.
Turkey will not give up on its role in Libya easily. Its economy remains fragile and short of revenues. Erdogan, under political pressure at home and wont to whip up nationalist support with military adventurism, would clearly like to use his Libya leverage to secure some hydrocarbon rights—Turkey is almost entirely reliant on energy imports—while there is also the prospect of earning tens of billions of dollars from post-war reconstruction in the country and recovering big sums Turkey claims Libya still owes from previous contracting work carried out prior to the nation becoming embroiled in its conflict.
On July 1, it was reported that a Turkish business delegation was set to visit Libya within two weeks to assess how Turkey’s companies and banks can help rebuild the war-torn country and secure its energy needs.
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