Vince Dhimos answered a question in the German language sector of Quora. Our translation of the question and the answer follows.
Would any other country helpf Iran if there were a war between Iran and the US?
Vince Dhimos, editor-in-chief and geopolitical analyst at www.newsilkstrategies.com (2015-present)
It is always hard to predict the future. All we can do is look at the evidence.
So here is a clue.
The web site Al-Masdar News Al-Masdar News reported today that Israel has experienced a disruption of its GPS signal. According to the report, this disruption extends into Syria, Iraq and Iran. There is only one country on the planet that is capable of disrupting the electronic controls and communications of aircraft and ground controls and that country is Russia -- although Russia denies that it is involved in this disruption.
Of course, Russia has not committed itself to joining Iran in a war against Israel or the US in the event Iran is attacked, although we know that Russia is strongly opposed to the efforts to stir up war sentiment against Iran, and Russia does not want any country to attack Iran. We also know that, at the same time, Russia wants to maintain good relations with Israel.
Therefore, we cannot expect Russia to actively fight the US or Israel if these countries choose to attack Iran.
But what if Russia used its electronic warfare equipment to prevent the Israeli or US fighter jets and bombers and the cruise missiles from flying?
The world has already seen that a US drone was downed in Iranian waters (yes, Iranian waters, shallow enough for the wreckage to be located by a fisherman). Is it not possible that this drone "lost its way"? The US insists that the drone was flying over international waters, and perhaps it was supposed to do that. But perhaps it was unable to follow the GPS signal correctly -- for some reason.
The US will not admit this if it is true because it does not want to lose face or appear to have been bested by Russia. And because it has no solution to the problem.
And Russia will never admit that it is disrupting the controls of aircraft, because it needs to work incognito as long as possible so that the US does not have time to seek a solution to these disruptions.
Could this be the real reason why Trump called off an attack on Iran?
Over a year ago, we learned that something was disrupting communications and navigation controls of US recon planes over Syria. We read back in April 2018 reports like this:
“General Raymond Thomas, the commander of U.S. Special Operations Command (USSOCOM), revealed that Syria has become the frontline of electronic warfare and U.S. planes are being disabled.
"’Right now in Syria we are operating in the most aggressive EW environment on the planet from our adversaries," Thomas told a crowd of some 2,000 "intelligence professionals" at the GEOINT Symposium on Tuesday, according to Breaking Defense.
"’They are testing us every day, knocking our communications down, disabling our EC-130s, etcetera," he added.
“While Thomas did not say which country is responsible for the attacks, Russian jamming and electronic warfare capabilities in Syria have long been noticed. Earlier this month, reports surfaced that Russian jamming was affecting small U.S. surveillance drones.
“Those efforts were, according to NBC News, not affecting larger armed drones like the MQ-1 Predator or the MQ-9 Reaper. A Defense Department official told NBC News that the jamming was having an operational impact on operations in Syria.” [This sounds fishy. If the GPS signal is disrupted for small aircraft, then it would be disrupted for large ones as well. Sounds like the Defence Department is trying to appear comptetent].
After this report surfaced, the media fell silent on this topic.
Then in September 2018, Israel used a Russian Il-20 as a shield in an operation to destroy Syrian infrastructure with missiles and as a result, the plane and is crew were shot down. Russia responded by reneging on an old promise and sending Syria its powerful S-300 air defence systems that would be tied into its bigger S-400, radar and electronic warfare systems at the Khmeimim Russian air base at Latakia.
At that time, Russian Defence minister Sergey Shoigu made a startling statement:
"In parts of the Mediterranean adjacent to Syria, there will be radio-electronic jamming of satellite navigation, onboard radars and communications systems used by military aircraft attacking targets in Syrian territory."
However, I noticed no further news reports on any attacks thwarted by this system and since then saw multiple reports of Israel attacking facilities in Syria that it alleged to be Iranian. I had to wonder if the Russian jamming system was failing or if the Israelis had found a work-around.
But today’s report from Al-Masdar News suggests that the Russians had simply not been using this jamming system much or at all these past few months, but that now, with an attack on Iran imminent, it appeared that Russia had seen fit to put this electronic warfare system into active duty.
My guess is that Russia was holding off on using their EW systems because they feared the US and Israel would start developing ways to circumvent it. In other words, they were saving it for a critical situation. Like the threat of an attack on Iran, for example.
Since I wrote this, Al-Masdar News has reported that Russia is prepared to sell Iran its S-400 air defence system. It was previously reported that Russia had refused to sell this system to Iran to avoid exacerbating tensions, but this was later said to be a fake report (although the Russians are not above making such a claim in an effort to save lives).
At any rate, if this sale and delivery go through, then it will be as big a game changer as the use of Russian EW described above. First, during and just after the delivery of the system, Russian military technical workers will be in Iran for assembly and start-up and for training their Iranian counterparts. The same rules will apply as were set for Trump when he fired those Tomahawks into Syria in Abril 2018. You will recall that the Russians said they would not try to engage with the American military doing the firing, but that if one hair on the head of Russian assets or one Russian facility were harmed, Russia retained the right to destroy the platforms – naval assets in this case – whence they came. You will recall that this was the last time the US dared to fire missiles at Syrian assets, ever. I am fairly confident that, once the Iranian S-400 deal is inked, the Russians will apply the same ground rules to the US and Israel.
At the same time, they will continue to beam their jammers at Iran to protect its air space. And once the S-400s are installed and the Iranian military is trained in their use, there is not likely to be any further talk of war on Iran.